Scores
Team Sports 119.7 – 6 Pack Big Macs 95.1· PROJAlan Autry Bubbas 137.6 – Bone Bandits 115.6· PROJJohnson, Flaccid 95.5 – Pimp Trick Gangsta Click 133.2· PROJBooger Wolf 129.1 – SHINGS CHINESE RESTAURANT 115.6· PROJLaces IN!! Laces IN!! 136.3 – Beast Mode Cowboy 114.6· PROJWeek 9 · 2026
Crouching Tiger
Hidden Penis
Exact, not simulated

Schedule Luck

Your score each week is yours. Who you faced is the schedule. For every team-season the exact distribution of records across all possible schedules is computed, so luck is measured, not guessed.

Seasons2026 seasonCompare teamsSchedule luckAwards

Luckiest seasons

Most wins above expectation

1Booger WolfWill Salzer202011-2 vs 8.1 expected · .99 of schedules worse+2.92Laces IN!! Laces IN!!Joshua Gary20219-5 vs 6.2 expected · .98 of schedules worse+2.83Johnson, FlaccidJeffrey Proctor20248-6 vs 5.4 expected · .98 of schedules worse+2.64Gronkey Punch TimeJoshua Gary201610-3 vs 7.6 expected · .98 of schedules worse+2.45Johnson, FlaccidJeffrey Proctor20207-6 vs 4.6 expected · .99 of schedules worse+2.46SHINGS CHINESE RESTAURANTEric Nicaud202510-4 vs 7.6 expected · .98 of schedules worse+2.47Alan Autry BubbasHunter Ansley20198-5 vs 5.8 expected · .98 of schedules worse+2.28Boner BanditsLance Black20207-6 vs 4.9 expected · .97 of schedules worse+2.19Team SportsTaylor Bolton202210-4 vs 8.1 expected · .94 of schedules worse+1.910Beast Mode CowboyJesse Landry20147-6 vs 5.1 expected · .98 of schedules worse+1.9

Unluckiest seasons

Most wins below expectation

1Laces IN!! Laces IN!!Joshua Gary20202-11 vs 5.4 expected · .98 of schedules better · missed playoffs-3.42Beast Mode CowboyJesse Landry20215-9 vs 8.4 expected · .98 of schedules better · missed playoffs-3.43Alan Autry BubbasHunter Ansley20226-8 vs 8.7 expected · .93 of schedules better · missed playoffs-2.74Beast Mode CowboyJesse Landry20196-7 vs 8.2 expected · .91 of schedules better-2.25Johnson, FlaccidJeffrey Proctor20194-9 vs 6.2 expected · .88 of schedules better · missed playoffs-2.26Laces IN!! Laces IN!!Joshua Gary20255-9 vs 7.2 expected · .89 of schedules better · missed playoffs-2.27SHINGS CHINESE RESTAURANTEric Nicaud20203-10 vs 5.0 expected · .87 of schedules better · missed playoffs-2.08The Hakuna MatataNick Valluzzo20143-10 vs 4.8 expected · .80 of schedules better · missed playoffs-1.89Beast Mode CowboyJesse Landry20209-4 vs 10.8 expected · .89 of schedules better-1.810Bone BanditsLance Black20254-10 vs 5.7 expected · .79 of schedules better · missed playoffs-1.7

Most fortunate qualifications

Made the playoffs with the lowest chance under a random schedule

1Johnson, FlaccidJeffrey Proctor20207-6 · 5 seed · chance to reach the cut line21%2Boner BanditsLance Black20207-6 · 4 seed · chance to reach the cut line32%3SHINGS CHINESE RESTAURANTEric Nicaud20187-6 · 5 seed · chance to reach the cut line39%4BISCUIT WHEELSEric Nicaud20147-6 · 5 seed · chance to reach the cut line40%5Laces IN!! Laces IN!!Joshua Gary20227-7 · 6 seed · chance to reach the cut line40%6Laces IN!! Laces IN!!Joshua Gary20219-5 · 1 seed · chance to reach the cut line43%7Pimp Trick Gangsta ClickMourice Wilson20178-5 · 5 seed · chance to reach the cut line46%8Johnson, FlaccidJeffrey Proctor20248-6 · 4 seed · chance to reach the cut line48%

Most unfortunate misses

Missed the playoffs despite the highest chance under a random schedule

1Alan Autry BubbasHunter Ansley20226-8 · finished 8th · chance to reach the cut line93%2Beast Mode CowboyJesse Landry20215-9 · finished 10th · chance to reach the cut line91%3Laces IN!! Laces IN!!Joshua Gary20255-9 · finished 7th · chance to reach the cut line89%4SHINGS CHINESE RESTAURANTEric Nicaud20196-7 · finished 10th · chance to reach the cut line81%5Booger WolfWill Salzer20246-8 · finished 8th · chance to reach the cut line69%6Johnson, FlaccidJeffrey Proctor20194-9 · finished 8th · chance to reach the cut line69%7Pimp Trick Gangsta ClickMourice Wilson20146-7 · finished 6th · chance to reach the cut line68%8Booger WolfWill Salzer20216-8 · finished 7th · chance to reach the cut line59%
Career

Cumulative schedule luck

ManagerSeasonsWinsExpectedLuck▼Per season
Will Salzer65146.9+4.1+0.68
Hunter Ansley129793.7+3.3+0.27
Joshua Gary128986.1+2.9+0.24
Lance Black117572.9+2.6+0.23
Mourice Wilson128280.7+1.8+0.15
Eric Nicaud127170.2+1.3+0.11
Jeffrey Proctor128180.1+0.9+0.07
Jacob Foy198.2+0.8+0.78
Adam Morgan187.6+0.4+0.44
Taylor Bolton127171.8−0.8−0.07
Noah Ansley2910.1−1.1−0.53
Greg Rockenbaugh51721.6−4.5−0.91
Nick Valluzzo105156.3−4.8−0.48
Jesse Landry129298.8−6.8−0.56
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Simulate a team's season

2026202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014

MethodOpen any season's standings and tap a team's luck value. Expected wins = sum over weeks of (teams you outscored)/9. The record distribution assumes each week's opponent is an independent uniform draw from the other nine; real ESPN schedules have constraints, so the exact set is narrower, but the all-play-based probability is the standard, schedule-free measure. Playoff probabilities use that season's actual cut line in wins.