Actual wins9of 13
Expected wins10.8all-play based
Luck-1.8wins vs expected
Schedules better89%would win more
Most likely record11-2.38 of schedules
All possible schedules
Record distribution
NoteProbability of each win total across all random schedules, with the team's actual weekly scores held fixed. Red bar = actual record. Playoff line: 6 wins.
Week by week
Where the luck came from
| Wk | Score | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 163.5 | SHINGS CHINESE RESTAURANT | W |
| 2 | 138.0 | Laces IN!! Laces IN!! | W |
| 3 | 129.5 | Alan Autry Bubbas | L |
| 4 | 183.5 | Pimp Trick Gangsta Click | W |
| 5 | 159.5 | Bojack Horsecocks | W |
| 6 | 73.0 | Boner Bandits | L |
| 7 | 147.0 | Team Sports | W |
| 8 | 143.0 | Booger Wolf | W |
| 9 | 164.0 | SHINGS CHINESE RESTAURANT | W |
| 10 | 128.0 | Johnson, Flaccid | W |
| 11 | 138.5 | Laces IN!! Laces IN!! | Lrobbed |
| 12 | 144.5 | Alan Autry Bubbas | Lrobbed |
| 13 | 167.0 | Pimp Trick Gangsta Click | W |
MethodLucky: wins that would have been losses against most of the league. Robbed: losses that would have been wins against most of the league.
Concrete alternatives
With someone else's schedule
| Schedule of | Record | vs actual |
|---|---|---|
 BOOGBooger Wolf | 13-0 | +4 |
 WILSPimp Trick Gangsta Click | 12-1 | +3 |
 BOLTTeam Sports | 12-1 | +3 |
 PROCJohnson, Flaccid | 12-1 | +3 |
 LANCBoner Bandits | 11-2 | +2 |
 GARYLaces IN!! Laces IN!! | 10-3 | +1 |
 AABAlan Autry Bubbas | 10-3 | +1 |
 NICASHINGS CHINESE RESTAURANT | 9-4 | 0 |
| BHBojack Horsecocks | 8-5 | -1 |
MethodYour scores, their opponents (when their opponent was you, you play them). With Will's schedule you go 13-0. With Noah's you go 8-5.