Actual wins7of 13
Expected wins4.9all-play based
Luck+2.1wins vs expected
Schedules better3%would win more
Most likely record5-8.28 of schedules
All possible schedules
Record distribution
NoteProbability of each win total across all random schedules, with the team's actual weekly scores held fixed. Red bar = actual record. Playoff line: 6 wins.
Week by week
Where the luck came from
| Wk | Score | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 97.5 | Booger Wolf | L |
| 2 | 109.0 | Pimp Trick Gangsta Click | L |
| 3 | 156.0 | SHINGS CHINESE RESTAURANT | W |
| 4 | 83.0 | Bojack Horsecocks | Wlucky |
| 5 | 110.5 | Johnson, Flaccid | Wlucky |
| 6 | 104.5 | Beast Mode Cowboy | W |
| 7 | 132.0 | Laces IN!! Laces IN!! | W |
| 8 | 77.0 | Team Sports | L |
| 9 | 67.5 | Alan Autry Bubbas | L |
| 10 | 86.0 | Booger Wolf | L |
| 11 | 110.0 | Pimp Trick Gangsta Click | W |
| 12 | 100.5 | SHINGS CHINESE RESTAURANT | L |
| 13 | 127.0 | Bojack Horsecocks | W |
MethodLucky: wins that would have been losses against most of the league. Robbed: losses that would have been wins against most of the league.
Concrete alternatives
With someone else's schedule
| Schedule of | Record | vs actual |
|---|---|---|
 PROCJohnson, Flaccid | 8-5 | +1 |
 BOOGBooger Wolf | 7-6 | 0 |
 WILSPimp Trick Gangsta Click | 5-8 | -2 |
 NICASHINGS CHINESE RESTAURANT | 5-8 | -2 |
 BOLTTeam Sports | 5-8 | -2 |
| BHBojack Horsecocks | 5-8 | -2 |
 BMCBeast Mode Cowboy | 4-9 | -3 |
 AABAlan Autry Bubbas | 3-10 | -4 |
 GARYLaces IN!! Laces IN!! | 2-11 | -5 |
MethodYour scores, their opponents (when their opponent was you, you play them). With Jeff's schedule you go 8-5. With Josh's you go 2-11.