Actual wins8of 13
Expected wins6.3all-play based
Luck+1.7wins vs expected
Schedules better8%would win more
Most likely record6-7.25 of schedules
All possible schedules
Record distribution
NoteProbability of each win total across all random schedules, with the team's actual weekly scores held fixed. Red bar = actual record. Playoff line: 7 wins.
Week by week
Where the luck came from
| Wk | Score | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 104.0 | Gronkey Punch Time | W |
| 2 | 109.5 | Beast Mode Cowboy | W |
| 3 | 91.0 | SHINGS CHINESE RESTAURANT | Wlucky |
| 4 | 102.0 | Team Sports | L |
| 5 | 78.0 | Lik-A Rock | L |
| 6 | 112.5 | Johnson, Flaccid | W |
| 7 | 99.5 | Alan Autry Bubbas | L |
| 8 | 135.0 | The Hakuna Matata | Lrobbed |
| 9 | 118.0 | Lik-A Rock | W |
| 10 | 82.0 | Boner Bandits | L |
| 11 | 112.0 | Beast Mode Cowboy | W |
| 12 | 132.0 | SHINGS CHINESE RESTAURANT | W |
| 13 | 100.0 | Team Sports | W |
MethodLucky: wins that would have been losses against most of the league. Robbed: losses that would have been wins against most of the league.
Concrete alternatives
With someone else's schedule
| Schedule of | Record | vs actual |
|---|---|---|
| NICASHINGS CHINESE RESTAURANT | 9-4 | +1 |
 GARYGronkey Punch Time | 8-5 | 0 |
 PROCJohnson, Flaccid | 8-5 | 0 |
 BMCBeast Mode Cowboy | 7-6 | -1 |
 LANCBoner Bandits | 6-7 | -2 |
 BOLTTeam Sports | 5-8 | -3 |
 ROCKLik-A Rock | 5-8 | -3 |
 AABAlan Autry Bubbas | 5-8 | -3 |
| VALLThe Hakuna Matata | 4-9 | -4 |
MethodYour scores, their opponents (when their opponent was you, you play them). With Eric's schedule you go 9-4. With Nick's you go 4-9.