Actual wins9of 14
Expected wins7.4all-play based
Luck+1.6wins vs expected
Schedules better5%would win more
Most likely record8-6.28 of schedules
All possible schedules
Record distribution
NoteProbability of each win total across all random schedules, with the team's actual weekly scores held fixed. Red bar = actual record. Playoff line: 6 wins.
Week by week
Where the luck came from
| Wk | Score | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 109.5 | SHINGS CHINESE RESTAURANT | W |
| 2 | 122.0 | Beast Mode Cowboy | W |
| 3 | 103.5 | Johnson, Flaccid | Wlucky |
| 4 | 100.0 | Bone Bandits | L |
| 5 | 162.0 | Pimp Trick Gangsta Click | W |
| 6 | 84.0 | Laces IN!! Laces IN!! | L |
| 7 | 127.5 | 6 Pack Big Macs | W |
| 8 | 125.0 | Team Sports | W |
| 9 | 119.0 | Alan Autry Bubbas | L |
| 10 | 144.0 | SHINGS CHINESE RESTAURANT | W |
| 11 | 60.0 | Beast Mode Cowboy | L |
| 12 | 62.5 | Johnson, Flaccid | L |
| 13 | 136.5 | Bone Bandits | W |
| 14 | 106.0 | Pimp Trick Gangsta Click | W |
MethodLucky: wins that would have been losses against most of the league. Robbed: losses that would have been wins against most of the league.
Concrete alternatives
With someone else's schedule
| Schedule of | Record | vs actual |
|---|---|---|
 NICASHINGS CHINESE RESTAURANT | 10-4 | +1 |
 BMCBeast Mode Cowboy | 9-5 | 0 |
 WILSPimp Trick Gangsta Click | 9-5 | 0 |
 VALL6 Pack Big Macs | 9-5 | 0 |
 AABAlan Autry Bubbas | 7-7 | -2 |
 GARYLaces IN!! Laces IN!! | 6-8 | -3 |
 PROCJohnson, Flaccid | 6-8 | -3 |
 LPBBone Bandits | 6-8 | -3 |
 BOLTTeam Sports | 5-9 | -4 |
MethodYour scores, their opponents (when their opponent was you, you play them). With Eric's schedule you go 10-4. With Taylor's you go 5-9.