Actual wins7of 14
Expected wins5.8all-play based
Luck+1.2wins vs expected
Schedules better12%would win more
Most likely record6-8.26 of schedules
All possible schedules
Record distribution
NoteProbability of each win total across all random schedules, with the team's actual weekly scores held fixed. Red bar = actual record. Playoff line: 6 wins.
Week by week
Where the luck came from
| Wk | Score | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 124.0 | Bone Bandits | W |
| 2 | 64.0 | Pimp Trick Gangsta Click | L |
| 3 | 122.0 | Laces IN!! Laces IN!! | W |
| 4 | 79.5 | SHINGS CHINESE RESTAURANT | L |
| 5 | 112.5 | Team Sports | Wlucky |
| 6 | 105.0 | Alan Autry Bubbas | L |
| 7 | 102.5 | Booger Wolf | L |
| 8 | 105.0 | Beast Mode Cowboy | L |
| 9 | 115.5 | Johnson, Flaccid | Wlucky |
| 10 | 124.0 | Bone Bandits | W |
| 11 | 108.5 | Pimp Trick Gangsta Click | W |
| 12 | 113.0 | Laces IN!! Laces IN!! | L |
| 13 | 104.5 | SHINGS CHINESE RESTAURANT | L |
| 14 | 130.5 | Team Sports | W |
MethodLucky: wins that would have been losses against most of the league. Robbed: losses that would have been wins against most of the league.
Concrete alternatives
With someone else's schedule
| Schedule of | Record | vs actual |
|---|---|---|
 BOOGBooger Wolf | 8-6 | +1 |
 PROCJohnson, Flaccid | 8-6 | +1 |
 WILSPimp Trick Gangsta Click | 7-7 | 0 |
 BMCBeast Mode Cowboy | 6-7-1 | -1 |
 BOLTTeam Sports | 6-8 | -1 |
 AABAlan Autry Bubbas | 5-9 | -2 |
 NICASHINGS CHINESE RESTAURANT | 4-10 | -3 |
 LPBBone Bandits | 4-10 | -3 |
 GARYLaces IN!! Laces IN!! | 3-10-1 | -4 |
MethodYour scores, their opponents (when their opponent was you, you play them). With Will's schedule you go 8-6. With Josh's you go 3-11.