Actual wins6of 14
Expected wins4.8all-play based
Luck+1.2wins vs expected
Schedules better11%would win more
Most likely record5-9.28 of schedules
All possible schedules
Record distribution
NoteProbability of each win total across all random schedules, with the team's actual weekly scores held fixed. Red bar = actual record. Playoff line: 6 wins.
Week by week
Where the luck came from
| Wk | Score | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 92.0 | Booger Wolf | Wlucky |
| 2 | 108.5 | Johnson, Flaccid | L |
| 3 | 94.5 | Beast Mode Cowboy | Wlucky |
| 4 | 113.0 | Team Sports | W |
| 5 | 92.5 | Laces IN!! Laces IN!! | L |
| 6 | 121.0 | Pimp Trick Gangsta Click | W |
| 7 | 87.0 | Bone Bandits | L |
| 8 | 111.0 | 6 Pack Big Macs | L |
| 9 | 112.0 | SHINGS CHINESE RESTAURANT | L |
| 10 | 100.5 | Booger Wolf | L |
| 11 | 78.5 | Johnson, Flaccid | L |
| 12 | 131.5 | Beast Mode Cowboy | W |
| 13 | 152.0 | Team Sports | W |
| 14 | 72.0 | Laces IN!! Laces IN!! | L |
MethodLucky: wins that would have been losses against most of the league. Robbed: losses that would have been wins against most of the league.
Concrete alternatives
With someone else's schedule
| Schedule of | Record | vs actual |
|---|---|---|
 BMCBeast Mode Cowboy | 8-6 | +2 |
 PROCJohnson, Flaccid | 6-8 | 0 |
 WILSPimp Trick Gangsta Click | 5-9 | -1 |
 BOLTTeam Sports | 5-9 | -1 |
 LPBBone Bandits | 5-9 | -1 |
 BOOGBooger Wolf | 4-10 | -2 |
 GARYLaces IN!! Laces IN!! | 4-10 | -2 |
 VALL6 Pack Big Macs | 4-10 | -2 |
 NICASHINGS CHINESE RESTAURANT | 2-12 | -4 |
MethodYour scores, their opponents (when their opponent was you, you play them). With Jesse's schedule you go 8-6. With Eric's you go 2-12.