Actual wins5of 14
Expected wins4.8all-play based
Luck+0.2wins vs expected
Schedules better32%would win more
Most likely record5-9.25 of schedules
All possible schedules
Record distribution
NoteProbability of each win total across all random schedules, with the team's actual weekly scores held fixed. Red bar = actual record. Playoff line: 6 wins.
Week by week
Where the luck came from
| Wk | Score | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 113.5 | 6 Pack Big Macs | L |
| 2 | 111.0 | Booger Wolf | W |
| 3 | 110.5 | Johnson, Flaccid | L |
| 4 | 78.0 | Beast Mode Cowboy | L |
| 5 | 108.0 | Team Sports | Wlucky |
| 6 | 88.5 | Laces IN!! Laces IN!! | L |
| 7 | 102.5 | Pimp Trick Gangsta Click | L |
| 8 | 86.0 | Bone Bandits | L |
| 9 | 131.0 | Alan Autry Bubbas | W |
| 10 | 113.0 | 6 Pack Big Macs | L |
| 11 | 100.0 | Booger Wolf | L |
| 12 | 127.5 | Johnson, Flaccid | W |
| 13 | 83.5 | Beast Mode Cowboy | L |
| 14 | 112.5 | Team Sports | Wlucky |
MethodLucky: wins that would have been losses against most of the league. Robbed: losses that would have been wins against most of the league.
Concrete alternatives
With someone else's schedule
| Schedule of | Record | vs actual |
|---|---|---|
 PROCJohnson, Flaccid | 7-7 | +2 |
 BOLTTeam Sports | 6-8 | +1 |
 AABAlan Autry Bubbas | 6-8 | +1 |
 BOOGBooger Wolf | 5-9 | 0 |
 BMCBeast Mode Cowboy | 4-10 | -1 |
 WILSPimp Trick Gangsta Click | 4-10 | -1 |
 GARYLaces IN!! Laces IN!! | 4-10 | -1 |
 LPBBone Bandits | 4-10 | -1 |
 VALL6 Pack Big Macs | 3-11 | -2 |
MethodYour scores, their opponents (when their opponent was you, you play them). With Jeff's schedule you go 7-7. With Nick's you go 3-11.