Actual wins10of 14
Expected wins9.5all-play based
Luck+0.5wins vs expected
Schedules better23%would win more
Most likely record10-4.28 of schedules
All possible schedules
Record distribution
NoteProbability of each win total across all random schedules, with the team's actual weekly scores held fixed. Red bar = actual record. Playoff line: 6 wins.
Week by week
Where the luck came from
| Wk | Score | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 80.5 | Beast Mode Cowboy | L |
| 2 | 134.0 | Team Sports | W |
| 3 | 123.5 | Laces IN!! Laces IN!! | W |
| 4 | 141.5 | 6 Pack Big Macs | W |
| 5 | 155.0 | Bone Bandits | W |
| 6 | 113.0 | Alan Autry Bubbas | L |
| 7 | 136.5 | SHINGS CHINESE RESTAURANT | W |
| 8 | 138.5 | Booger Wolf | W |
| 9 | 127.5 | Johnson, Flaccid | W |
| 10 | 161.5 | Beast Mode Cowboy | W |
| 11 | 156.0 | Team Sports | W |
| 12 | 90.0 | Laces IN!! Laces IN!! | L |
| 13 | 109.0 | 6 Pack Big Macs | L |
| 14 | 196.5 | Bone Bandits | W |
MethodLucky: wins that would have been losses against most of the league. Robbed: losses that would have been wins against most of the league.
Concrete alternatives
With someone else's schedule
| Schedule of | Record | vs actual |
|---|---|---|
 BMCBeast Mode Cowboy | 11-3 | +1 |
 NICASHINGS CHINESE RESTAURANT | 11-3 | +1 |
 PROCJohnson, Flaccid | 10-4 | 0 |
 BOLTTeam Sports | 9-5 | -1 |
 BOOGBooger Wolf | 9-4-1 | -1 |
 AABAlan Autry Bubbas | 9-5 | -1 |
 LPBBone Bandits | 9-5 | -1 |
 VALL6 Pack Big Macs | 9-5 | -1 |
 GARYLaces IN!! Laces IN!! | 8-6 | -2 |
MethodYour scores, their opponents (when their opponent was you, you play them). With Jesse's schedule you go 11-3. With Josh's you go 8-6.