Actual wins10of 14
Expected wins11.6all-play based
Luck-1.6wins vs expected
Schedules better80%would win more
Most likely record12-2.29 of schedules
All possible schedules
Record distribution
NoteProbability of each win total across all random schedules, with the team's actual weekly scores held fixed. Red bar = actual record. Playoff line: 6 wins.
Week by week
Where the luck came from
| Wk | Score | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 144.5 | SHINGS CHINESE RESTAURANT | W |
| 2 | 134.5 | Laces IN!! Laces IN!! | W |
| 3 | 132.5 | Booger Wolf | W |
| 4 | 119.5 | Pimp Trick Gangsta Click | Lrobbed |
| 5 | 138.5 | Johnson, Flaccid | W |
| 6 | 144.5 | Bone Bandits | W |
| 7 | 149.0 | Beast Mode Cowboy | Lrobbed |
| 8 | 137.0 | Alan Autry Bubbas | W |
| 9 | 151.5 | Team Sports | W |
| 10 | 128.5 | SHINGS CHINESE RESTAURANT | W |
| 11 | 130.5 | Laces IN!! Laces IN!! | Lrobbed |
| 12 | 143.5 | Booger Wolf | W |
| 13 | 119.5 | Pimp Trick Gangsta Click | W |
| 14 | 117.0 | Johnson, Flaccid | L |
MethodLucky: wins that would have been losses against most of the league. Robbed: losses that would have been wins against most of the league.
Concrete alternatives
With someone else's schedule
| Schedule of | Record | vs actual |
|---|---|---|
 BOOGBooger Wolf | 13-1 | +3 |
 PROCJohnson, Flaccid | 13-1 | +3 |
 NICASHINGS CHINESE RESTAURANT | 12-2 | +2 |
 AABAlan Autry Bubbas | 12-1-1 | +2 |
 BMCBeast Mode Cowboy | 11-3 | +1 |
 WILSPimp Trick Gangsta Click | 11-3 | +1 |
 BOLTTeam Sports | 11-3 | +1 |
 GARYLaces IN!! Laces IN!! | 11-3 | +1 |
 LPBBone Bandits | 10-4 | 0 |
MethodYour scores, their opponents (when their opponent was you, you play them). With Will's schedule you go 13-1.