Actual wins9of 14
Expected wins9.8all-play based
Luck-0.8wins vs expected
Schedules better60%would win more
Most likely record10-4.29 of schedules
All possible schedules
Record distribution
NoteProbability of each win total across all random schedules, with the team's actual weekly scores held fixed. Red bar = actual record. Playoff line: 6 wins.
Week by week
Where the luck came from
| Wk | Score | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 145.5 | Pimp Trick Gangsta Click | W |
| 2 | 143.5 | Bone Bandits | W |
| 3 | 76.0 | Alan Autry Bubbas | L |
| 4 | 124.5 | SHINGS CHINESE RESTAURANT | W |
| 5 | 123.5 | Booger Wolf | L |
| 6 | 115.5 | Johnson, Flaccid | W |
| 7 | 188.0 | 6 Pack Big Macs | W |
| 8 | 143.5 | Team Sports | W |
| 9 | 145.0 | Laces IN!! Laces IN!! | W |
| 10 | 138.0 | Pimp Trick Gangsta Click | Lrobbed |
| 11 | 138.0 | Bone Bandits | W |
| 12 | 117.5 | Alan Autry Bubbas | L |
| 13 | 118.5 | SHINGS CHINESE RESTAURANT | W |
| 14 | 103.5 | Booger Wolf | L |
MethodLucky: wins that would have been losses against most of the league. Robbed: losses that would have been wins against most of the league.
Concrete alternatives
With someone else's schedule
| Schedule of | Record | vs actual |
|---|---|---|
 NICASHINGS CHINESE RESTAURANT | 12-2 | +3 |
 GARYLaces IN!! Laces IN!! | 11-3 | +2 |
 AABAlan Autry Bubbas | 11-3 | +2 |
 PROCJohnson, Flaccid | 10-4 | +1 |
 LPBBone Bandits | 10-4 | +1 |
 BOLTTeam Sports | 9-5 | 0 |
 BOOGBooger Wolf | 9-5 | 0 |
 WILSPimp Trick Gangsta Click | 8-6 | -1 |
 VALL6 Pack Big Macs | 8-6 | -1 |
MethodYour scores, their opponents (when their opponent was you, you play them). With Eric's schedule you go 12-2. With Nick's you go 8-6.