Actual wins8of 14
Expected wins7.2all-play based
Luck+0.8wins vs expected
Schedules better22%would win more
Most likely record7-7.24 of schedules
All possible schedules
Record distribution
NoteProbability of each win total across all random schedules, with the team's actual weekly scores held fixed. Red bar = actual record. Playoff line: 7 wins.
Week by week
Where the luck came from
| Wk | Score | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 162.5 | Team Sports | W |
| 2 | 175.5 | Beast Mode Cowboy | W |
| 3 | 110.0 | Booger Wolf | L |
| 4 | 139.0 | SHINGS CHINESE RESTAURANT | W |
| 5 | 129.0 | Alan Autry Bubbas | W |
| 6 | 111.5 | 6 Pack Big Macs | W |
| 7 | 90.5 | Boner Bandits | L |
| 8 | 119.5 | Pimp Trick Gangsta Click | L |
| 9 | 102.5 | Laces IN!! Laces IN!! | W |
| 10 | 91.0 | Team Sports | L |
| 11 | 102.0 | Beast Mode Cowboy | L |
| 12 | 127.0 | Booger Wolf | Lrobbed |
| 13 | 104.0 | SHINGS CHINESE RESTAURANT | W |
| 14 | 124.5 | Alan Autry Bubbas | W |
MethodLucky: wins that would have been losses against most of the league. Robbed: losses that would have been wins against most of the league.
Concrete alternatives
With someone else's schedule
| Schedule of | Record | vs actual |
|---|---|---|
 BMCBeast Mode Cowboy | 9-5 | +1 |
 BOLTTeam Sports | 9-5 | +1 |
 GARYLaces IN!! Laces IN!! | 9-5 | +1 |
 AABAlan Autry Bubbas | 7-7 | -1 |
 LANCBoner Bandits | 7-7 | -1 |
 VALL6 Pack Big Macs | 7-7 | -1 |
 WILSPimp Trick Gangsta Click | 6-8 | -2 |
 NICASHINGS CHINESE RESTAURANT | 6-8 | -2 |
 BOOGBooger Wolf | 5-9 | -3 |
MethodYour scores, their opponents (when their opponent was you, you play them). With Jesse's schedule you go 9-5. With Will's you go 5-9.