Actual wins10of 14
Expected wins10.2all-play based
Luck-0.2wins vs expected
Schedules better40%would win more
Most likely record10-4.30 of schedules
All possible schedules
Record distribution
NoteProbability of each win total across all random schedules, with the team's actual weekly scores held fixed. Red bar = actual record. Playoff line: 7 wins.
Week by week
Where the luck came from
| Wk | Score | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 119.5 | Beast Mode Cowboy | W |
| 2 | 176.0 | SHINGS CHINESE RESTAURANT | W |
| 3 | 151.0 | Johnson, Flaccid | W |
| 4 | 144.0 | Alan Autry Bubbas | W |
| 5 | 174.0 | 6 Pack Big Macs | W |
| 6 | 115.0 | Boner Bandits | Lrobbed |
| 7 | 103.0 | Pimp Trick Gangsta Click | L |
| 8 | 91.5 | Laces IN!! Laces IN!! | L |
| 9 | 149.5 | Team Sports | W |
| 10 | 141.0 | Beast Mode Cowboy | W |
| 11 | 102.5 | SHINGS CHINESE RESTAURANT | W |
| 12 | 132.0 | Johnson, Flaccid | W |
| 13 | 149.5 | Alan Autry Bubbas | W |
| 14 | 103.0 | 6 Pack Big Macs | L |
MethodLucky: wins that would have been losses against most of the league. Robbed: losses that would have been wins against most of the league.
Concrete alternatives
With someone else's schedule
| Schedule of | Record | vs actual |
|---|---|---|
 BMCBeast Mode Cowboy | 12-2 | +2 |
 NICASHINGS CHINESE RESTAURANT | 11-2-1 | +1 |
 BOLTTeam Sports | 11-3 | +1 |
 PROCJohnson, Flaccid | 11-3 | +1 |
 LANCBoner Bandits | 11-3 | +1 |
 WILSPimp Trick Gangsta Click | 9-5 | -1 |
 AABAlan Autry Bubbas | 9-5 | -1 |
 VALL6 Pack Big Macs | 9-5 | -1 |
 GARYLaces IN!! Laces IN!! | 8-6 | -2 |
MethodYour scores, their opponents (when their opponent was you, you play them). With Jesse's schedule you go 12-2. With Josh's you go 8-6.