Actual wins4of 14
Expected wins4.8all-play based
Luck-0.3wins vs expected
Schedules better58%would win more
Most likely record5-9.25 of schedules
All possible schedules
Record distribution
NoteProbability of each win total across all random schedules, with the team's actual weekly scores held fixed. Red bar = actual record. Playoff line: 7 wins.
Week by week
Where the luck came from
| Wk | Score | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 106.5 | Boner Bandits | Wlucky |
| 2 | 104.0 | Booger Wolf | L |
| 3 | 119.0 | Pimp Trick Gangsta Click | T |
| 4 | 134.0 | Johnson, Flaccid | L |
| 5 | 120.5 | Laces IN!! Laces IN!! | L |
| 6 | 110.0 | Alan Autry Bubbas | L |
| 7 | 87.5 | Team Sports | L |
| 8 | 159.0 | 6 Pack Big Macs | W |
| 9 | 90.0 | Beast Mode Cowboy | L |
| 10 | 102.0 | Boner Bandits | Wlucky |
| 11 | 79.0 | Booger Wolf | L |
| 12 | 111.5 | Pimp Trick Gangsta Click | L |
| 13 | 96.0 | Johnson, Flaccid | L |
| 14 | 118.0 | Laces IN!! Laces IN!! | W |
MethodLucky: wins that would have been losses against most of the league. Robbed: losses that would have been wins against most of the league.
Concrete alternatives
With someone else's schedule
| Schedule of | Record | vs actual |
|---|---|---|
 BOLTTeam Sports | 8-6 | +4 |
 BMCBeast Mode Cowboy | 6-7-1 | +2 |
 LANCBoner Bandits | 6-8 | +2 |
 GARYLaces IN!! Laces IN!! | 5-8-1 | +1 |
 WILSPimp Trick Gangsta Click | 4-9-1 | 0 |
 PROCJohnson, Flaccid | 4-10 | 0 |
 VALL6 Pack Big Macs | 4-10 | 0 |
 BOOGBooger Wolf | 3-11 | -1 |
 AABAlan Autry Bubbas | 2-12 | -2 |
MethodYour scores, their opponents (when their opponent was you, you play them). With Taylor's schedule you go 8-6. With Hunter's you go 2-12.