Actual wins8of 14
Expected wins7.6all-play based
Luck+0.4wins vs expected
Schedules better25%would win more
Most likely record8-6.27 of schedules
All possible schedules
Record distribution
NoteProbability of each win total across all random schedules, with the team's actual weekly scores held fixed. Red bar = actual record. Playoff line: 7 wins.
Week by week
Where the luck came from
| Wk | Score | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 134.5 | Johnson, Flaccid | W |
| 2 | 157.5 | SHINGS CHINESE RESTAURANT | W |
| 3 | 130.0 | Bojack Horsecocks | W |
| 4 | 81.5 | Pimp Trick Gangsta Click | L |
| 5 | 127.0 | Boner Bandits | Wlucky |
| 6 | 125.5 | Beast Mode Cowboy | L |
| 7 | 117.5 | Laces IN!! Laces IN!! | L |
| 8 | 155.0 | Alan Autry Bubbas | W |
| 9 | 125.5 | Booger Wolf | W |
| 10 | 119.0 | Johnson, Flaccid | Lrobbed |
| 11 | 95.0 | SHINGS CHINESE RESTAURANT | L |
| 12 | 71.5 | Bojack Horsecocks | L |
| 13 | 116.0 | Pimp Trick Gangsta Click | Wlucky |
| 14 | 162.5 | Boner Bandits | W |
MethodLucky: wins that would have been losses against most of the league. Robbed: losses that would have been wins against most of the league.
Concrete alternatives
With someone else's schedule
| Schedule of | Record | vs actual |
|---|---|---|
 LANCBoner Bandits | 10-4 | +2 |
 WILSPimp Trick Gangsta Click | 9-5 | +1 |
 AABAlan Autry Bubbas | 8-6 | 0 |
 PROCJohnson, Flaccid | 8-6 | 0 |
 NICASHINGS CHINESE RESTAURANT | 7-7 | -1 |
 BOOGBooger Wolf | 7-7 | -1 |
 BJBojack Horsecocks | 7-7 | -1 |
 BMCBeast Mode Cowboy | 6-8 | -2 |
 GARYLaces IN!! Laces IN!! | 6-8 | -2 |
MethodYour scores, their opponents (when their opponent was you, you play them). With Lance's schedule you go 10-4. With Josh's you go 6-8.