Actual wins5of 13
Expected wins5.7all-play based
Luck-0.7wins vs expected
Schedules better56%would win more
Most likely record6-7.28 of schedules
All possible schedules
Record distribution
NoteProbability of each win total across all random schedules, with the team's actual weekly scores held fixed. Red bar = actual record. Playoff line: 6 wins.
Week by week
Where the luck came from
| Wk | Score | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 71.0 | Johnson, Flaccid | L |
| 2 | 104.5 | Johnson, Flaccid | L |
| 3 | 123.5 | Laces IN!! Laces IN!! | Wlucky |
| 4 | 96.5 | Alan Autry Bubbas | L |
| 5 | 83.0 | Pimp Trick Gangsta Click | L |
| 6 | 105.0 | Bojack Horsecocks | L |
| 7 | 119.0 | Beast Mode Cowboy | L |
| 8 | 104.5 | Boner Bandits | W |
| 9 | 105.0 | Booger Wolf | L |
| 10 | 144.0 | SHINGS CHINESE RESTAURANT | W |
| 11 | 80.5 | Johnson, Flaccid | L |
| 12 | 137.0 | Laces IN!! Laces IN!! | W |
| 13 | 144.5 | Alan Autry Bubbas | W |
MethodLucky: wins that would have been losses against most of the league. Robbed: losses that would have been wins against most of the league.
Concrete alternatives
With someone else's schedule
| Schedule of | Record | vs actual |
|---|---|---|
 PROCJohnson, Flaccid | 8-5 | +3 |
 LANCBoner Bandits | 7-5-1 | +2 |
 BOOGBooger Wolf | 6-7 | +1 |
 AABAlan Autry Bubbas | 6-7 | +1 |
| BHBojack Horsecocks | 6-7 | +1 |
 WILSPimp Trick Gangsta Click | 5-8 | 0 |
 NICASHINGS CHINESE RESTAURANT | 5-8 | 0 |
 BMCBeast Mode Cowboy | 4-9 | -1 |
 GARYLaces IN!! Laces IN!! | 4-9 | -1 |
MethodYour scores, their opponents (when their opponent was you, you play them). With Jeff's schedule you go 8-5. With Josh's you go 4-9.