Actual wins5of 13
Expected wins5.3all-play based
Luck-0.3wins vs expected
Schedules better43%would win more
Most likely record5-8.28 of schedules
All possible schedules
Record distribution
NoteProbability of each win total across all random schedules, with the team's actual weekly scores held fixed. Red bar = actual record. Playoff line: 6 wins.
Week by week
Where the luck came from
| Wk | Score | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 105.5 | Laces IN!! Laces IN!! | L |
| 2 | 114.5 | Beast Mode Cowboy | W |
| 3 | 128.5 | SHINGS CHINESE RESTAURANT | L |
| 4 | 69.5 | Team Sports | L |
| 5 | 116.0 | Lik-A Rock | Wlucky |
| 6 | 94.5 | Johnson, Flaccid | L |
| 7 | 99.0 | Alan Autry Bubbas | W |
| 8 | 103.0 | 6 pack Big Macs | L |
| 9 | 168.5 | Lik-A Rock | W |
| 10 | 112.0 | Boner Bandits | L |
| 11 | 163.0 | Beast Mode Cowboy | W |
| 12 | 54.5 | SHINGS CHINESE RESTAURANT | L |
| 13 | 84.0 | Team Sports | L |
MethodLucky: wins that would have been losses against most of the league. Robbed: losses that would have been wins against most of the league.
Concrete alternatives
With someone else's schedule
| Schedule of | Record | vs actual |
|---|---|---|
 GARYLaces IN!! Laces IN!! | 8-4-1 | +3 |
 BMCBeast Mode Cowboy | 6-7 | +1 |
 AABAlan Autry Bubbas | 6-7 | +1 |
 LANCBoner Bandits | 6-7 | +1 |
 BOLTTeam Sports | 5-8 | 0 |
 ROCKLik-A Rock | 5-8 | 0 |
 NICASHINGS CHINESE RESTAURANT | 4-9 | -1 |
 PROCJohnson, Flaccid | 4-9 | -1 |
 VALL6 pack Big Macs | 3-10 | -2 |
MethodYour scores, their opponents (when their opponent was you, you play them). With Josh's schedule you go 8-5. With Nick's you go 3-10.