Actual wins9of 13
Expected wins8.8all-play based
Luck+0.2wins vs expected
Schedules better31%would win more
Most likely record9-4.30 of schedules
All possible schedules
Record distribution
NoteProbability of each win total across all random schedules, with the team's actual weekly scores held fixed. Red bar = actual record. Playoff line: 7 wins.
Week by week
Where the luck came from
| Wk | Score | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 132.0 | Boner Bandits | W |
| 2 | 129.5 | Alan Autry Bubbas | W |
| 3 | 146.5 | Gronkey Punch Time | W |
| 4 | 120.0 | The Hakuna Matata | W |
| 5 | 118.5 | SHINGS CHINESE RESTAURANT | W |
| 6 | 109.5 | Pimp Trick Gangsta Click | L |
| 7 | 164.0 | Team Sports | W |
| 8 | 75.0 | Beast Mode Cowboy | L |
| 9 | 112.0 | Boner Bandits | W |
| 10 | 101.0 | Alan Autry Bubbas | L |
| 11 | 108.5 | Gronkey Punch Time | L |
| 12 | 131.5 | The Hakuna Matata | W |
| 13 | 123.5 | Lik-A Rock | W |
MethodLucky: wins that would have been losses against most of the league. Robbed: losses that would have been wins against most of the league.
Concrete alternatives
With someone else's schedule
| Schedule of | Record | vs actual |
|---|---|---|
 LANCBoner Bandits | 11-2 | +2 |
 WILSPimp Trick Gangsta Click | 10-3 | +1 |
 GARYGronkey Punch Time | 10-3 | +1 |
 ROCKLik-A Rock | 9-4 | 0 |
 AABAlan Autry Bubbas | 9-4 | 0 |
| NICASHINGS CHINESE RESTAURANT | 8-5 | -1 |
 BOLTTeam Sports | 8-5 | -1 |
 BMCBeast Mode Cowboy | 7-6 | -2 |
| VALLThe Hakuna Matata | 7-5-1 | -2 |
MethodYour scores, their opponents (when their opponent was you, you play them). With Lance's schedule you go 11-2. With Nick's you go 7-6.