Actual wins11of 13
Expected wins10.1all-play based
Luck+0.9wins vs expected
Schedules better14%would win more
Most likely record10-3.29 of schedules
All possible schedules
Record distribution
NoteProbability of each win total across all random schedules, with the team's actual weekly scores held fixed. Red bar = actual record. Playoff line: 7 wins.
Week by week
Where the luck came from
| Wk | Score | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 162.0 | The Hakuna Matata | W |
| 2 | 110.0 | Johnson, Flaccid | L |
| 3 | 103.5 | Boner Bandits | L |
| 4 | 109.5 | Lik-A Rock | W |
| 5 | 139.5 | Gronkey Punch Time | W |
| 6 | 117.5 | SHINGS CHINESE RESTAURANT | W |
| 7 | 107.5 | Pimp Trick Gangsta Click | W |
| 8 | 123.5 | Team Sports | W |
| 9 | 112.0 | The Hakuna Matata | W |
| 10 | 130.5 | Johnson, Flaccid | W |
| 11 | 165.5 | Boner Bandits | W |
| 12 | 136.5 | Beast Mode Cowboy | W |
| 13 | 121.0 | Gronkey Punch Time | W |
MethodLucky: wins that would have been losses against most of the league. Robbed: losses that would have been wins against most of the league.
Concrete alternatives
With someone else's schedule
| Schedule of | Record | vs actual |
|---|---|---|
| NICASHINGS CHINESE RESTAURANT | 12-1 | +1 |
 WILSPimp Trick Gangsta Click | 11-2 | 0 |
 GARYGronkey Punch Time | 11-2 | 0 |
 LANCBoner Bandits | 11-1-1 | 0 |
 BOLTTeam Sports | 10-3 | -1 |
 BMCBeast Mode Cowboy | 9-3-1 | -2 |
 ROCKLik-A Rock | 9-4 | -2 |
 PROCJohnson, Flaccid | 9-4 | -2 |
| VALLThe Hakuna Matata | 8-5 | -3 |
MethodYour scores, their opponents (when their opponent was you, you play them). With Eric's schedule you go 12-1. With Nick's you go 8-5.