Actual wins3of 13
Expected wins2.6all-play based
Luck+0.4wins vs expected
Schedules better22%would win more
Most likely record2-11.31 of schedules
All possible schedules
Record distribution
NoteProbability of each win total across all random schedules, with the team's actual weekly scores held fixed. Red bar = actual record. Playoff line: 7 wins.
Week by week
Where the luck came from
| Wk | Score | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 91.0 | Beast Mode Cowboy | L |
| 2 | 86.5 | SHINGS CHINESE RESTAURANT | L |
| 3 | 99.0 | Team Sports | L |
| 4 | 83.0 | Alan Autry Bubbas | L |
| 5 | 80.5 | Pimp Trick Gangsta Click | Wlucky |
| 6 | 102.5 | The Hakuna Matata | W |
| 7 | 83.0 | Boner Bandits | L |
| 8 | 82.5 | Gronkey Punch Time | L |
| 9 | 47.0 | Pimp Trick Gangsta Click | L |
| 10 | 130.5 | Beast Mode Cowboy | W |
| 11 | 105.5 | SHINGS CHINESE RESTAURANT | L |
| 12 | 77.0 | Team Sports | L |
| 13 | 57.0 | Johnson, Flaccid | L |
MethodLucky: wins that would have been losses against most of the league. Robbed: losses that would have been wins against most of the league.
Concrete alternatives
With someone else's schedule
| Schedule of | Record | vs actual |
|---|---|---|
 WILSPimp Trick Gangsta Click | 4-9 | +1 |
 BMCBeast Mode Cowboy | 3-10 | 0 |
| NICASHINGS CHINESE RESTAURANT | 3-10 | 0 |
| VALLThe Hakuna Matata | 3-10 | 0 |
 GARYGronkey Punch Time | 3-10 | 0 |
 BOLTTeam Sports | 2-11 | -1 |
 AABAlan Autry Bubbas | 2-11 | -1 |
 LANCBoner Bandits | 2-11 | -1 |
 PROCJohnson, Flaccid | 1-11-1 | -2 |
MethodYour scores, their opponents (when their opponent was you, you play them). With Mourice's schedule you go 4-9. With Jeff's you go 1-12.