Actual wins10of 13
Expected wins9.7all-play based
Luck+0.3wins vs expected
Schedules better25%would win more
Most likely record10-3.32 of schedules
All possible schedules
Record distribution
NoteProbability of each win total across all random schedules, with the team's actual weekly scores held fixed. Red bar = actual record. Playoff line: 6 wins.
Week by week
Where the luck came from
| Wk | Score | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 138.0 | SHINGS CHINESE RESTAURANT | Lrobbed |
| 2 | 142.0 | Boner Bandits | W |
| 3 | 108.5 | Lik-A Rock | L |
| 4 | 139.5 | Pimp Trick Gangsta Click | W |
| 5 | 153.5 | Beast Mode Cowboy | W |
| 6 | 81.0 | Gronkey Punch Time | L |
| 7 | 140.5 | Water Hole Assasin | W |
| 8 | 125.5 | Alan Autry Bubbas | W |
| 9 | 146.5 | Beast Mode Cowboy | W |
| 10 | 168.5 | SHINGS CHINESE RESTAURANT | W |
| 11 | 115.5 | The Hakuna Matata | W |
| 12 | 136.0 | Lik-A Rock | W |
| 13 | 138.5 | Pimp Trick Gangsta Click | W |
MethodLucky: wins that would have been losses against most of the league. Robbed: losses that would have been wins against most of the league.
Concrete alternatives
With someone else's schedule
| Schedule of | Record | vs actual |
|---|---|---|
 BMCBeast Mode Cowboy | 12-1 | +2 |
 WILSPimp Trick Gangsta Click | 11-2 | +1 |
| VALLThe Hakuna Matata | 11-2 | +1 |
 PROCWater Hole Assasin | 10-3 | 0 |
 LANCBoner Bandits | 10-3 | 0 |
 GARYGronkey Punch Time | 9-4 | -1 |
 AABAlan Autry Bubbas | 9-4 | -1 |
| NICASHINGS CHINESE RESTAURANT | 8-5 | -2 |
 ROCKLik-A Rock | 7-6 | -3 |
MethodYour scores, their opponents (when their opponent was you, you play them). With Jesse's schedule you go 12-1. With Greg's you go 7-6.