Actual wins5of 13
Expected wins5.7all-play based
Luck-0.7wins vs expected
Schedules better55%would win more
Most likely record6-7.27 of schedules
All possible schedules
Record distribution
NoteProbability of each win total across all random schedules, with the team's actual weekly scores held fixed. Red bar = actual record. Playoff line: 6 wins.
Week by week
Where the luck came from
| Wk | Score | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 129.5 | Lik-A Rock | W |
| 2 | 74.0 | Pimp Trick Gangsta Click | L |
| 3 | 109.5 | The Hakuna Matata | L |
| 4 | 77.5 | SHINGS CHINESE RESTAURANT | L |
| 5 | 129.0 | Team Sports | Lrobbed |
| 6 | 151.0 | Boner Bandits | W |
| 7 | 87.0 | Gronkey Punch Time | L |
| 8 | 113.0 | Water Hole Assasin | W |
| 9 | 102.0 | Team Sports | L |
| 10 | 125.5 | Lik-A Rock | W |
| 11 | 130.0 | Pimp Trick Gangsta Click | W |
| 12 | 96.5 | Alan Autry Bubbas | L |
| 13 | 107.0 | SHINGS CHINESE RESTAURANT | L |
MethodLucky: wins that would have been losses against most of the league. Robbed: losses that would have been wins against most of the league.
Concrete alternatives
With someone else's schedule
| Schedule of | Record | vs actual |
|---|---|---|
| VALLThe Hakuna Matata | 7-6 | +2 |
 GARYGronkey Punch Time | 7-6 | +2 |
 LANCBoner Bandits | 7-6 | +2 |
 WILSPimp Trick Gangsta Click | 6-7 | +1 |
 ROCKLik-A Rock | 6-7 | +1 |
 BOLTTeam Sports | 5-8 | 0 |
 AABAlan Autry Bubbas | 5-8 | 0 |
 PROCWater Hole Assasin | 5-8 | 0 |
| NICASHINGS CHINESE RESTAURANT | 3-10 | -2 |
MethodYour scores, their opponents (when their opponent was you, you play them). With Nick's schedule you go 7-6. With Eric's you go 3-10.