Actual wins8of 13
Expected wins7.8all-play based
Luck+0.2wins vs expected
Schedules better34%would win more
Most likely record8-5.26 of schedules
All possible schedules
Record distribution
NoteProbability of each win total across all random schedules, with the team's actual weekly scores held fixed. Red bar = actual record. Playoff line: 6 wins.
Week by week
Where the luck came from
| Wk | Score | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 111.0 | The Hakuna Matata | W |
| 2 | 110.5 | SHINGS CHINESE RESTAURANT | W |
| 3 | 142.5 | Lik-A Rock | W |
| 4 | 101.0 | Pimp Trick Gangsta Click | W |
| 5 | 132.5 | Team Sports | W |
| 6 | 128.0 | Boner Bandits | Lrobbed |
| 7 | 142.5 | Johnson, Flaccid | W |
| 8 | 90.0 | Alan Autry Bubbas | L |
| 9 | 95.5 | Team Sports | L |
| 10 | 114.0 | Gronkey Punch Time | L |
| 11 | 112.0 | SHINGS CHINESE RESTAURANT | W |
| 12 | 146.5 | Lik-A Rock | W |
| 13 | 120.0 | Pimp Trick Gangsta Click | L |
MethodLucky: wins that would have been losses against most of the league. Robbed: losses that would have been wins against most of the league.
Concrete alternatives
With someone else's schedule
| Schedule of | Record | vs actual |
|---|---|---|
 BOLTTeam Sports | 10-3 | +2 |
 WILSPimp Trick Gangsta Click | 9-4 | +1 |
| NICASHINGS CHINESE RESTAURANT | 9-3-1 | +1 |
 PROCJohnson, Flaccid | 9-4 | +1 |
 ROCKLik-A Rock | 7-6 | -1 |
 GARYGronkey Punch Time | 7-6 | -1 |
 AABAlan Autry Bubbas | 7-6 | -1 |
 LANCBoner Bandits | 7-6 | -1 |
| VALLThe Hakuna Matata | 5-8 | -3 |
MethodYour scores, their opponents (when their opponent was you, you play them). With Taylor's schedule you go 10-3. With Nick's you go 5-8.