PROCJohnson, FlaccidJeffrey Proctor2-0338.0 PFAP .944WWRec2-0PF338.0PA229.0All-play.944WWRating▼▼Elo rating is the strongest input.
Rankings reconstructed with only the results available after week 2 of 2022. Nothing from later weeks leaks in.
PROCJohnson, FlaccidJeffrey Proctor2-0338.0 PFAP .944WWRec2-0PF338.0PA229.0All-play.944WWRating▼▼Elo rating is the strongest input.
MethodEach component is converted to a z-score across the ten teams, then blended: season scoring 30%, recent form (last three weeks) 25%, all-play record 20%, Elo 15%, next-week ESPN projection 10%. Scoring-based components are shrunk toward average early in the season (×week/(week+3)). When a component is unavailable (projections only exist for the upcoming week of the current season) the remaining weights are renormalized, never filled in. Rating = 50 + 12 × composite. Elo carries across seasons with one-third regression to the mean. Rankings for past weeks use only games played through that week.